Prognostic Biomarkers in Kidney Transplantation: A Systematic Review and Critical Appraisal.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Why are there so few biomarkers accepted by health authorities and implemented in clinical practice, despite the high and growing number of biomaker studies in medical research ? In this meta-epidemiological study, including 804 studies that were critically appraised by expert reviewers, the authors have identified all prognostic kidney transplant biomarkers and showed overall suboptimal study designs, methods, results, interpretation, reproducible research standards, and transparency. The authors also demonstrated for the first time that the limited number of studies challenged the added value of their candidate biomarkers against standard-of-care routine patient monitoring parameters. Most biomarker studies tended to be single-center, retrospective studies with a small number of patients and clinical events. Less than 5% of the studies performed an external validation. The authors also showed the poor transparency reporting and identified a data beautification phenomenon. These findings suggest that there is much wasted research effort in transplant biomarker medical research and highlight the need to produce more rigorous studies so that more biomarkers may be validated and successfully implemented in clinical practice. BACKGROUND: Despite the increasing number of biomarker studies published in the transplant literature over the past 20 years, demonstrations of their clinical benefit and their implementation in routine clinical practice are lacking. We hypothesized that suboptimal design, data, methodology, and reporting might contribute to this phenomenon. METHODS: We formed a consortium of experts in systematic reviews, nephrologists, methodologists, and epidemiologists. A systematic literature search was performed in PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library between January 1, 2005, and November 12, 2022 (PROSPERO ID: CRD42020154747). All English language, original studies investigating the association between a biomarker and kidney allograft outcome were included. The final set of publications was assessed by expert reviewers. After data collection, two independent reviewers randomly evaluated the inconsistencies for 30% of the references for each reviewer. If more than 5% of inconsistencies were observed for one given reviewer, a re-evaluation was conducted for all the references of the reviewer. The biomarkers were categorized according to their type and the biological milieu from which they were measured. The study characteristics related to the design, methods, results, and their interpretation were assessed, as well as reproducible research practices and transparency indicators. RESULTS: A total of 7372 publications were screened and 804 studies met the inclusion criteria. A total of 1143 biomarkers were assessed among the included studies from blood ( n =821, 71.8%), intragraft ( n =169, 14.8%), or urine ( n =81, 7.1%) compartments. The number of studies significantly increased, with a median, yearly number of 31.5 studies (interquartile range [IQR], 23.8-35.5) between 2005 and 2012 and 57.5 (IQR, 53.3-59.8) between 2013 and 2022 ( P < 0.001). A total of 655 studies (81.5%) were retrospective, while 595 (74.0%) used data from a single center. The median number of patients included was 232 (IQR, 96-629) with a median follow-up post-transplant of 4.8 years (IQR, 3.0-6.2). Only 4.7% of studies were externally validated. A total of 346 studies (43.0%) did not adjust their biomarker for key prognostic factors, while only 3.1% of studies adjusted the biomarker for standard-of-care patient monitoring factors. Data sharing, code sharing, and registration occurred in 8.8%, 1.1%, and 4.6% of studies, respectively. A total of 158 studies (20.0%) emphasized the clinical relevance of the biomarker, despite the reported nonsignificant association of the biomarker with the outcome measure. A total of 288 studies assessed rejection as an outcome. We showed that these rejection studies shared the same characteristics as other studies. CONCLUSIONS: Biomarker studies in kidney transplantation lack validation, rigorous design and methodology, accurate interpretation, and transparency. Higher standards are needed in biomarker research to prove the clinical utility and support clinical use.

Interleukin-21 promotes Type-1 activation and cytotoxicity of CD56dimCD16bright natural killer cells during kidney allograft antibody-mediated rejection showing a new link between adaptive and innate humoral allo-immunity.

The role of Natural killer (NK) cells during kidney allograft antibody-mediated rejection (ABMR) is increasingly recognized, but an in-depth characterization of mechanisms that contribute to such immune response is still under investigation. Here, we characterized phenotypic, functional, and transcriptomic profiles of peripheral blood circulating and allograft infiltrating CD56dimCD16bright NK cells during anti-HLA donor-specific antibody (DSA)+ ABMR. Cross-sectional analyses performed in 71 kidney transplant recipients identified a unique phenotypic circulating CD56dimCD16bright NK cell cluster expanded in DSA+ ABMR. This cluster co-expressed high levels of the interleukin-21 Receptor (IL-21R); Type-1 transcription factors T-bet and EOMES, CD160 and natural killer group 2D cytotoxic and activating co-stimulatory receptors. CD160+ IL-21R+ NK cells correlated with elevated plasma IL-21, Ki-67+ ICOS+ (CD278) IL-21-producing circulating T follicular helper cells, enhanced Type-1 pro-inflammatory cytokines, NK cell cytotoxicity, worse microvascular inflammation and graft loss. Single-cell transcriptomic analysis of circulating NK cells delineated an expanded cluster in DSA+ ABMR characterized by elevated pro-inflammatory/cytotoxic pathways, IL-21/STAT3 signaling, and leukocyte trans-endothelial migration pathways. Infiltration of CD160+ IL-21R+ NK cells with similar transcriptomic profile was detected in DSA+ ABMR allograft biopsies, potentially contributing to allograft injury. Thus, the IL-21/IL-21R axis, linking adaptive and innate humoral allo-immunity, or NK cells may represent appealing immunotherapy targets in DSA+ ABMR.

Comparison of artificial intelligence and human-based prediction and stratification of the risk of long-term kidney allograft failure.

BACKGROUND: Clinical decisions are mainly driven by the ability of physicians to apply risk stratification to patients. However, this task is difficult as it requires complex integration of numerous parameters and is impacted by patient heterogeneity. We sought to evaluate the ability of transplant physicians to predict the risk of long-term allograft failure and compare them to a validated artificial intelligence (AI) prediction algorithm. METHODS: We randomly selected 400 kidney transplant recipients from a qualified dataset of 4000 patients. For each patient, 44 features routinely collected during the first-year post-transplant were compiled in an electronic health record (EHR). We enrolled 9 transplant physicians at various career stages. At 1-year post-transplant, they blindly predicted the long-term graft survival with probabilities for each patient. Their predictions were compared with those of a validated prediction system (iBox). We assessed the determinants of each physician's prediction using a random forest survival model. RESULTS: Among the 400 patients included, 84 graft failures occurred at 7 years post-evaluation. The iBox system demonstrates the best predictive performance with a discrimination of 0.79 and a median calibration error of 5.79%, while physicians tend to overestimate the risk of graft failure. Physicians' risk predictions show wide heterogeneity with a moderate intraclass correlation of 0.58. The determinants of physicians' prediction are disparate, with poor agreement regardless of their clinical experience. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows the overall limited performance and consistency of physicians to predict the risk of long-term graft failure, demonstrated by the superior performances of the iBox. This study supports the use of a companion tool to help physicians in their prognostic judgement and decision-making in clinical care.

The ability to predict the risk of a particular event is key to clinical decision-making, for example when predicting the risk of a poor outcome to help decide which patients should receive an organ transplant. Computer-based systems may help to improve risk prediction, particularly with the increasing volume and complexity of patient data available to clinicians. Here, we compare predictions of the risk of long-term kidney transplant failure made by clinicians with those made by our computer-based system (the iBox system). We observe that clinicians' overall performance in predicting individual long-term outcomes is limited compared to the iBox system, and demonstrate wide variability in clinicians' predictions, regardless of level of experience. Our findings support the use of the iBox system in the clinic to help clinicians predict outcomes and make decisions surrounding kidney transplants.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on publication dynamics and non-COVID-19 research production.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has severely affected health systems and medical research worldwide but its impact on the global publication dynamics and non-COVID-19 research has not been measured. We hypothesized that the COVID-19 pandemic may have impacted the scientific production of non-COVID-19 research. METHODS: We conducted a comprehensive meta-research on studies (original articles, research letters and case reports) published between 01/01/2019 and 01/01/2021 in 10 high-impact medical and infectious disease journals (New England Journal of Medicine, Lancet, Journal of the American Medical Association, Nature Medicine, British Medical Journal, Annals of Internal Medicine, Lancet Global Health, Lancet Public Health, Lancet Infectious Disease and Clinical Infectious Disease). For each publication, we recorded publication date, publication type, number of authors, whether the publication was related to COVID-19, whether the publication was based on a case series, and the number of patients included in the study if the publication was based on a case report or a case series. We estimated the publication dynamics with a locally estimated scatterplot smoothing method. A Natural Language Processing algorithm was designed to calculate the number of authors for each publication. We simulated the number of non-COVID-19 studies that could have been published during the pandemic by extrapolating the publication dynamics of 2019 to 2020, and comparing the expected number to the observed number of studies. RESULTS: Among the 22,525 studies assessed, 6319 met the inclusion criteria, of which 1022 (16.2%) were related to COVID-19 research. A dramatic increase in the number of publications in general journals was observed from February to April 2020 from a weekly median number of publications of 4.0 (IQR: 2.8-5.5) to 19.5 (IQR: 15.8-24.8) (p < 0.001), followed afterwards by a pattern of stability with a weekly median number of publications of 10.0 (IQR: 6.0-14.0) until December 2020 (p = 0.045 in comparison with April). Two prototypical editorial strategies were found: 1) journals that maintained the volume of non-COVID-19 publications while integrating COVID-19 research and thus increased their overall scientific production, and 2) journals that decreased the volume of non-COVID-19 publications while integrating COVID-19 publications. We estimated using simulation models that the COVID pandemic was associated with a 18% decrease in the production of non-COVID-19 research. We also found a significant change of the publication type in COVID-19 research as compared with non-COVID-19 research illustrated by a decrease in the number of original articles, (47.9% in COVID-19 publications vs 71.3% in non-COVID-19 publications, p < 0.001). Last, COVID-19 publications showed a higher number of authors, especially for case reports with a median of 9.0 authors (IQR: 6.0-13.0) in COVID-19 publications, compared to a median of 4.0 authors (IQR: 3.0-6.0) in non-COVID-19 publications (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: In this meta-research gathering publications from high-impact medical journals, we have shown that the dramatic rise in COVID-19 publications was accompanied by a substantial decrease of non-COVID-19 research. META-RESEARCH REGISTRATION: https://osf.io/9vtzp/ .

Dynamic prediction of renal survival among deeply phenotyped kidney transplant recipients using artificial intelligence: an observational, international, multicohort study.

BACKGROUND: Kidney allograft failure is a common cause of end-stage renal disease. We aimed to develop a dynamic artificial intelligence approach to enhance risk stratification for kidney transplant recipients by generating continuously refined predictions of survival using updates of clinical data. METHODS: In this observational study, we used data from adult recipients of kidney transplants from 18 academic transplant centres in Europe, the USA, and South America, and a cohort of patients from six randomised controlled trials. The development cohort comprised patients from four centres in France, with all other patients included in external validation cohorts. To build deeply phenotyped cohorts of transplant recipients, the following data were collected in the development cohort: clinical, histological, immunological variables, and repeated measurements of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and proteinuria (measured using the proteinuria to creatininuria ratio). To develop a dynamic prediction system based on these clinical assessments and repeated measurements, we used a Bayesian joint models-an artificial intelligence approach. The prediction performances of the model were assessed via discrimination, through calculation of the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and calibration. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04258891. FINDINGS: 13 608 patients were included (3774 in the development cohort and 9834 in the external validation cohorts) and contributed 89 328 patient-years of data, and 416 510 eGFR and proteinuria measurements. Bayesian joint models showed that recipient immunological profile, allograft interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy, allograft inflammation, and repeated measurements of eGFR and proteinuria were independent risk factors for allograft survival. The final model showed accurate calibration and very high discrimination in the development cohort (overall dynamic AUC 0·857 [95% CI 0·847-0·866]) with a persistent improvement in AUCs for each new repeated measurement (from 0·780 [0·768-0·794] to 0·926 [0·917-0·932]; p<0·0001). The predictive performance was confirmed in the external validation cohorts from Europe (overall AUC 0·845 [0·837-0·854]), the USA (overall AUC 0·820 [0·808-0·831]), South America (overall AUC 0·868 [0·856-0·880]), and the cohort of patients from randomised controlled trials (overall AUC 0·857 [0·840-0·875]). INTERPRETATION: Because of its dynamic design, this model can be continuously updated and holds value as a bedside tool that could refine the prognostic judgements of clinicians in everyday practice, hence enhancing precision medicine in the transplant setting. FUNDING: MSD Avenir, French National Institute for Health and Medical Research, and Bettencourt Schueller Foundation.

Successful treatment of acute kidney allograft rejection using extracorporeal photopheresis in the context of post-transplant lymphoproliferative diseases: three successive cases.

We reported 3 kidney transplant patients with PTLD who developed mixed AR following IS treatment minimization. AR episodes were treated with extracorporeal photopheresis (ECP), methylprednisolone and IVIG. In all patients, graft function improved under ECP and stabilized in the long term. These observations suggest that ECP is safe and efficient for treatment of AR in the context of PTLD.

T-bet+CD27+CD21- B cells poised for plasma cell differentiation during antibody-mediated rejection of kidney transplants.

Alloimmune responses driven by donor-specific antibodies (DSAs) can lead to antibody-mediated rejection (ABMR) in organ transplantation. Yet, the cellular states underlying alloreactive B cell responses and the molecular components controlling them remain unclear. Using high-dimensional profiling of B cells in a cohort of 96 kidney transplant recipients, we identified expanded numbers of CD27+CD21- activated memory (AM) B cells that expressed the transcription factor T-bet in patients who developed DSAs and progressed to ABMR. Notably, AM cells were less frequent in DSA+ABMR- patients and at baseline levels in DSA- patients. RNA-Seq analysis of AM cells in patients undergoing ABMR revealed these cells to be poised for plasma cell differentiation and to express restricted IGHV sequences reflective of clonal expansion. In addition to T-bet, AM cells manifested elevated expression of interferon regulatory factor 4 and Blimp1, and upon coculture with autologous T follicular helper cells, differentiated into DSA-producing plasma cells in an IL-21-dependent manner. The frequency of AM cells was correlated with the timing and severity of ABMR manifestations. Importantly, T-bet+ AM cells were detected within kidney allografts along with their restricted IGHV sequences. This study delineates a pivotal role for AM cells in promoting humoral responses and ABMR in organ transplantation and highlights them as important therapeutic targets.

Management of Immunosuppression After Kidney Transplant Failure: Effect on Patient Sensitization.

BACKGROUND: Immunosuppressive treatment is often interrupted in the first months following kidney transplant failure (KTF) to limit side effects. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of prolonged treatment (PT) of more than 3 months' duration after KTF on HLA sensitization and treatment tolerance. METHODS: We performed a retrospective observational study involving 119 patients with KTF in 3 French kidney transplant centers between June 2007 and June 2017. Sensitization was defined as the development of HLA donor-specific antibodies (DSA). RESULTS: In the PT group receiving calcineurin inhibitor (CNI) treatment, 30 of 52 patients (57.7%) were sensitized vs 52 of 67 patients (77.6%) who had early cessation of treatment (P = .02). The results were confirmed by multivariate analysis (odds ratio [OR] = 0.39, 95% confidence interval [CI] [0.16; 0.98], P = .04). The development of de novo DSAs after CNI treatment (n = 63/90 [70.0%]) was significantly more frequent than during CNI treatment, (n = 18/52 [34.6%], P = .01). Panel-reactive antibody ≥85% was lower in the PT group in multivariate analysis (OR = 0.28, 95% CI [0.10; 0.78], P = .02). No differences in the rates of infection, cardiovascular complications, neoplasia, and deaths were observed between the 2 groups. In multivariate analysis, continuation of corticosteroid treatment had no influence on sensitization but was associated with a higher rate of infection (OR = 2.66, 95% CI [1.09; 6.46], P = .03). CONCLUSION: Maintenance of CNI treatment after return to dialysis in patients requesting a repeat transplant could avoid the development of anti-HLA sensitization with a good tolerance.

Trajectories of glomerular filtration rate and progression to end stage kidney disease after kidney transplantation.

Although the gold standard of monitoring kidney transplant function relies on glomerular filtration rate (GFR), little is known about GFR trajectories after transplantation, their determinants, and their association with outcomes. To evaluate these parameters we examined kidney transplant recipients receiving care at 15 academic centers. Patients underwent prospective monitoring of estimated GFR (eGFR) measurements, with assessment of clinical, functional, histological and immunological parameters. Additional validation took place in seven randomized controlled trials that included a total of 14,132 patients with 403,497 eGFR measurements. After a median follow-up of 6.5 years, 1,688 patients developed end-stage kidney disease. Using unsupervised latent class mixed models, we identified eight distinct eGFR trajectories. Multinomial regression models identified seven significant determinants of eGFR trajectories including donor age, eGFR, proteinuria, and several significant histological features: graft scarring, graft interstitial inflammation and tubulitis, microcirculation inflammation, and circulating anti-HLA donor specific antibodies. The eGFR trajectories were associated with progression to end stage kidney disease. These trajectories, their determinants and respective associations with end stage kidney disease were similar across cohorts, as well as in diverse clinical scenarios, therapeutic eras and in the seven randomized control trials. Thus, our results provide the basis for a trajectory-based assessment of kidney transplant patients for risk stratification and monitoring.

Coordinated Circulating T Follicular Helper and Activated B Cell Responses Underlie the Onset of Antibody-Mediated Rejection in Kidney Transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Although antibody-mediated rejection (ABMR) has been long recognized as a leading cause of allograft failure after kidney transplantation, the cellular and molecular processes underlying the induction of deleterious donor-specific antibody (DSA) responses remain poorly understood. METHODS: Using high-dimensional flow cytometry, in vitro assays, and RNA sequencing, we concomitantly investigated the role of T follicular helper (TFH) cells and B cells during ABMR in 105 kidney transplant recipients. RESULTS: There were 54 patients without DSAs; of those with DSAs, ABMR emerged in 20 patients, but not in 31 patients. We identified proliferating populations of circulating TFH cells and activated B cells emerging in blood of patients undergoing ABMR. Although these circulating TFH cells comprised heterogeneous phenotypes, they were dominated by activated (ICOS+PD-1+) and early memory precursor (CCR7+CD127+) subsets, and were enriched for the transcription factors IRF4 and c-Maf. These circulating TFH cells produced large amounts of IL-21 upon stimulation with donor antigen and induced B cells to differentiate into antibody-secreting cells that produced DSAs. Combined analysis of the matched circulating TFH cell and activated B cell RNA-sequencing profiles identified highly coordinated transcriptional programs in circulating TFH cells and B cells among patients with ABMR, which markedly differed from those of patients who did not develop DSAs or ABMR. The timing of expansion of the distinctive circulating TFH cells and activated B cells paralleled emergence of DSAs in blood, and their magnitude was predictive of IgG3 DSA generation, more severe allograft injury, and higher rate of allograft loss. CONCLUSIONS: Patients undergoing ABMR may benefit from monitoring and therapeutic targeting of TFH cell-B cell interactions.

An extension of the RITUX-ERAH study, multicenter randomized clinical trial comparing rituximab to placebo in acute antibody-mediated rejection after renal transplantation.

The treatment of active antibody-mediated rejection (ABMR) is still a matter of debate, the place of rituximab remaining controversial. The French multicenter double-blind RITUX-ERAH study included 38 patients with ABMR in the first year of renal transplantation. All patients received plasma exchanges, intravenous immunoglobulins, and corticosteroids and were randomly assigned rituximab or placebo infusion at day 5. Additional rituximab infusions were allowed. In the intention-to-treat analysis, 12-month graft survival and renal function were not different between the rituximab and placebo groups. Long-term data are needed to conclude. Evaluation of the 7-year outcomes of the RITUX-ERAH study patients according to the rituximab or placebo treatment received. Eleven patients received placebo and 27 at least one infusion of rituximab. Seven years after ABMR, death-censored kidney allograft survival and renal function were not different between the groups. The evolution of anti-HLA sensitization was similar. There was no statistically significant difference in the incidence of infectious or neoplastic complications, but to be noted, seven cancers developed in six patients treated with rituximab (mean period of 44 months post-ABMR). In this cohort, there was no benefit 7 years after ABMR of rituximab in addition to plasma exchanges, intravenous immunoglobulins, and steroids.

Specific impact of past and new major cardiovascular events on acute kidney injury and end-stage renal disease risks in diabetes: a dynamic view.

BACKGROUND: Interconnections between major cardiovascular events (MCVEs) and renal events are recognized in diabetes, however, the specific impact of atrial fibrillation (AF), heart failure (HF) and acute coronary syndrome (ACS) on the risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) on top of established renal risk factors is unclear in type 2 diabetes mellitus. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study in 861 consecutive patients followed in a nephrology setting during the 2000-13 period. RESULTS: The mean age was 70 ± 10 years, 65.1% were men and the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 42.4 ± 21.0 mL/min/1.73 m2. During follow-up (median 59 months), 194 patients reached ESRD. A history of AF, HF or ACS was associated with an increased risk of reduced baseline eGFR. In turn, reduced baseline eGFR resulted in a greater risk of new MCVE (especially HF) during follow-up. Finally, all new MCVEs were risk factors for subsequent acute kidney injury (AKI) {HF: hazard ratio [HR] 8.99 [95% confidence interval (CI) 7.06-11.4]; AF: HR 5.42 (3.91-7.52); ACS: HR 8.82 (6.24-12.5); all P < 0.0001} and ESRD [HF: HR 5.52 (95% CI 4.01-7.60), P < 0.0001; AF: HR 3.48 (2.30-5.21), P < 0.0001; ACS: HR 2.31 (1.43-3.73), P = 0.0006]. The AF- and HF-associated risks of ESRD were significant after adjustments on all renal risks of ESRD (gender, blood pressure, eGFR, albuminuria, renin-angiotensin blockers, retinopathy and AKI), but the association was less strong for ACS. Importantly, no association was noted between other major events such as stroke or infections and the risk of ESRD. CONCLUSIONS: Past and new cardiovascular events (more HF and AF than ACS) have a strong, independent impact on the development of ESRD above and beyond established risk factors in diabetes.

The association between renal resistive index and premature mortality after kidney transplantation is modified by pre-transplant diabetes status: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Renal resistive index (RI) predicts mortality in renal transplant recipients, but we do not know whether this is true in diabetic patients. The objective of this study was to analyse the long-term predictive value of RI for death with a functioning graft (DWFG) in renal transplant recipients with or without pre-transplant diabetes. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study in 1800 renal transplant recipients between 1985 and 2017 who were followed for up to 30 years (total observation period: 14 202 patient years). Donor and recipient characteristics at time of transplantation and at 3 months were reviewed. The long-term predictive value of RI for DWFG and the age-RI and arterial pressure-RI relationships were assessed. RESULTS: A total of 284/1800 (15.7%) patients had diabetes mellitus before transplantation. RI was <0.75 in 1327/1800 patients (73.7%). High RI was associated with a higher risk of DWFG in non-diabetic patients [hazard ratio (HR) = 3.39, 95% confidence interval 2.50-4.61; P < 0.001], but not in patients with pre-transplant diabetes (HR = 1.25, 0.70-2.19; P = 0.39), even after multiple adjustments. There was no interaction between diabetes and age. In contrast, there was an interaction between RI and pulse pressure. CONCLUSION: Our study indicates that RI is not a predictor of DWFG in diabetic renal transplant recipients, in contrast to non-diabetic recipients. These findings could be due to a different age-RI or pulse pressure-RI relationship.

Prevention of parvovirus B19-induced repetitive acute kidney failure by subcutaneous immunoglobulins.

Human parvovirus B19 has been associated with various cases of kidney injuries with different glomerular phenotypes. In immunocompromised individuals, insufficient production of neutralizing antibodies can lead to chronic PVB19 carriage and manifestations. However, PVB19 DNA has been detected in bone marrow and peripheral blood for months or years in seemingly immunocompetent individuals, despite the presence of neutralizing antibodies. We report here PVB19-induced recurrent anuric acute kidney failures in a 57-year-old man over a 7-year period with persistent PVB19 infection and then PVB19-associated cryoglobulinemia. Acute renal failures were preceded by influenza-like syndrome associated with arthralgia, skin rash, and low-grade fever. Serum, bone marrow, renal, and digestive PVB19 replication was found in the different episodes. Endocapillary proliferative glomerulonephritis evolved into membranoproliferative glomerulonephritis. Complete renal recovery occurred after each bout. Off-label subcutaneous immunoglobulin therapy resulted in disappearance of blood and bone marrow PVB19 viral load and stopped the glomerulonephritis recurrence. Subcutaneous immunoglobulin therapy withdrawal resulted in renal relapse with cryoglobulin-associated manifestations.

Prediction system for risk of allograft loss in patients receiving kidney transplants: international derivation and validation study.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate an integrative system to predict long term kidney allograft failure. DESIGN: International cohort study. SETTING: Three cohorts including kidney transplant recipients from 10 academic medical centres from Europe and the United States. PARTICIPANTS: Derivation cohort: 4000 consecutive kidney recipients prospectively recruited in four French centres between 2005 and 2014. Validation cohorts: 2129 kidney recipients from three centres in Europe and 1428 from three centres in North America, recruited between 2002 and 2014. Additional validation in three randomised controlled trials (NCT01079143, EudraCT 2007-003213-13, and NCT01873157). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Allograft failure (return to dialysis or pre-emptive retransplantation). 32 candidate prognostic factors for kidney allograft survival were assessed. RESULTS: Among the 7557 kidney transplant recipients included, 1067 (14.1%) allografts failed after a median post-transplant follow-up time of 7.12 (interquartile range 3.51-8.77) years. In the derivation cohort, eight functional, histological, and immunological prognostic factors were independently associated with allograft failure and were then combined into a risk prediction score (iBox). This score showed accurate calibration and discrimination (C index 0.81, 95% confidence interval 0.79 to 0.83). The performance of the iBox was also confirmed in the validation cohorts from Europe (C index 0.81, 0.78 to 0.84) and the US (0.80, 0.76 to 0.84). The iBox system showed accuracy when assessed at different times of evaluation post-transplant, was validated in different clinical scenarios including type of immunosuppressive regimen used and response to rejection therapy, and outperformed previous risk prediction scores as well as a risk score based solely on functional parameters including estimated glomerular filtration rate and proteinuria. Finally, the accuracy of the iBox risk score in predicting long term allograft loss was confirmed in the three randomised controlled trials. CONCLUSION: An integrative, accurate, and readily implementable risk prediction score for kidney allograft failure has been developed, which shows generalisability across centres worldwide and common clinical scenarios. The iBox risk prediction score may help to guide monitoring of patients and further improve the design and development of a valid and early surrogate endpoint for clinical trials. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT03474003.

Epitope load identifies kidney transplant recipients at risk of allosensitization following minimization of immunosuppression.

Human leukocyte antigen (HLA) mismatching and minimization of immunosuppression are two major risk factors for the development of de novo donor-specific antibodies, which are associated with reduced kidney graft survival. Antibodies do not recognize whole HLA antigens but rather individual epitopes, which are short sequences of amino acids in accessible positions. However, compatibility is still assessed by the simple count of mismatched HLA antigens. We hypothesized that the number of mismatched epitopes, or ("epitope load") would identify patients at the highest risk of developing donor specific antibodies following minimization of immunosuppression. We determined epitope load in 89 clinical trial participants who converted from cyclosporine to everolimus 3 months after kidney transplantation. Twenty-nine participants (32.6%) developed de novo donor specific antibodies. Compared to the number of HLA mismatches, epitope load was more strongly associated with the development of donor specific antibodies. Participants with an epitope load greater than 27 had a 12-fold relative risk of developing donor-specific antibodies compared to those with an epitope load below that threshold. Using that threshold, epitope load would have missed only one participant who subsequently developed donor specific antibodies, compared to 8 missed cases based on a 6-antigen mismatch. DQ7 was the most frequent antigenic target of donor specific antibodies in our population, and some DQ7 epitopes appeared to be more frequently involved than others. Assessing epitope load before minimizing immunosuppression may be a more efficient tool to identify patients at the highest risk of allosensitization.

Increased risk of rejection after basiliximab induction in sensitized kidney transplant recipients without pre-existing donor-specific antibodies - a retrospective study.

Depleting induction therapy is recommended in sensitized kidney transplant recipients (KTRs), though the detrimental effect of nondonor-specific anti-HLA antibodies is not undeniable. We compared the efficacy and safety of basiliximab and rabbit anti-thymocyte globulin (rATG) in sensitized KTRs without pre-existing donor-specific antibodies (DSAs). This monocentric retrospective study involved all sensitized KTR adults without pre-existing DSAs (n = 218) who underwent transplantation after June 2007. Patients with basiliximab and rATG therapy were compared for risk of biopsy-proven acute rejection (BPAR) and a composite endpoint (BPAR, graft loss and death) by univariate and multivariate analysis. Patients with basiliximab (n = 60) had lower mean calculated panel reactive antibody than those with rATG (n = 158; 23.7 ± 24.2 vs. 63.8 ± 32.3, P < 0.0001) and more often received a first graft (88% vs. 54%, P < 0.0001) and a transplant from a living donor (13% vs. 2%, P = 0.002). Risks of BPAR and of reaching the composite endpoint were greater with basiliximab than rATG [HR = 3.63 (1.70-7.77), P = 0.0009 and HR = 1.60 (0.99-2.59), P = 0.050, respectively]. Several adjustments did not change those risks [BPAR: 3.36 (1.23-9.16), P = 0.018; composite endpoint: 1.83 (0.99-3.39), P = 0.053]. Infections and malignancies were similar in both groups. rATG remains the first-line treatment in sensitized KTR, even in the absence of pre-existing DSAs.

Impact on renal resistive index of diabetes in renal transplant donors and recipients: A retrospective analysis of 1827 kidney transplant recipients.

High renal resistive index (RI) is observed in diabetes and is associated with poor patient survival, but whether it is primarily due to renal vascular resistance or systemic vascular alterations is unclear. The respective impact of kidney transplant from diabetic donors or to diabetic recipients on RI would shed some light on this issue. The objective of the study was to analyze the impact of donor and recipient diabetes on RI in order to understand the respective impact of the kidney and the vascular environment. The authors conducted a retrospective study in 1827 renal transplant recipients who received a kidney between 1985 and 2017, and had Doppler measurements at 3 months after transplant. Donor and recipient characteristics at the time of transplant and at 3 months were reviewed. Both donor diabetes and recipient diabetes were associated with RI in univariate analysis, but only recipient diabetes remained significantly associated in stepwise multivariate analyses (effect estimate on RI: +0.03 ± 0.005, P < 0.001). These findings were confirmed when RI was expressed as a binary variable using a cutoff of 0.75 (OR = 2.50 [1.77, 3.54], P < 0.001). Other determinants of RI were recipient characteristics (age, sex, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and duration of dialysis). Donor characteristics were not associated with RI. Our results suggest that high RI observed in diabetic recipients shortly after transplant is primarily due to the new vascular environment, rather than to characteristics of the transplanted kidney. Therefore, RI reflects systemic rather than intra-renal changes.

Renal function at the time of nephrology referral but not dialysis initiation as a risk for death in patients with diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND: Renal patients with diabetes mellitus are at very high risk of death before and after chronic dialysis initiation. Risk factors for death in this population are not clearly identified. METHODS: We performed a retrospective survival analysis in 861 patients with diabetes mellitus consecutively followed up in the 2000-13 period in a nephrology setting. RESULTS: The mean age was 70 ± 10 years [men 65.2%; diabetes duration 13.7 ± 10.3 years; mean estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) 42.4 ± 21.0 mL/min/1.73 m2). During follow-up (median 60 months; up 15 years), 263 patients died (184 before and 79 after dialysis initiation) and 183 started chronic dialysis. In multivariate analyses, age, elevated systolic and low diastolic arterial pressures, peripheral artery disease, cancer, loop diuretic use and atrial fibrillation at baseline and acute kidney injury (AKI), heart failure (HF) and amputation during follow-up were identified as risk factors for death. After adjustments on these parameters, eGFRs at the time of the first outpatient visit-eGFR <45 mL/min/1.73 m2 {hazard ratio [HR] 1.58 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.15-2.17]}, P = 0.005 and eGFR <30 [HR 1.53 (1.05-2.05)], P = 0.004, but not eGFR <60-were powerful risk factors for death. When initiation of dialysis was entered into the multivariate models, it was not associated with a risk of premature death [HR 1.19 (95% CI 0.91-1.55), P = 0.2069], even in patients >80 years of age [HR 1.08 (95% CI 0.64-1.81), P = 0.7793]. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with diabetes mellitus, high systolic and low diastolic arterial pressure, peripheral artery disease and development of AKI and HF are significant risk factors for death. In addition to these parameters, eGFR <45 mL/min/1.73 m2 at the time of referral is also a powerful risk factor for death.